Here’s my simple cynical theory:
1. If the Obvious Method yields the Welcome Answer, the Obvious Method will be popular.
2. If the Obvious Method fails to yield the Welcome Answer, the Obvious Method will be unpopular.
If #2 holds, then:
3. If a Non-Obvious Method yields the Welcome Answer, the Non-Obvious Method will be popular.
4. If no Non-Obvious Method yields the Welcome Answer, the Question will be unpopular.
Bryan Caplan “Predicting the Popularity of Obvious Methods”
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/01/predicting_the.html (via peterspear)
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/01/predicting_the.html (via peterspear)